The biofuels sector is at a pivotal moment, facing shifting policies and a heightened focus on sustainability. Balancing multiple, sometimes competing, sometimes complementary priorities - from reducing carbon intensity and managing climate risks; to operating in a tough cost environment while keeping profitability in focus – is key if market participants and actors across the bioenergy value chain are to contribute successfully to the energy transition.
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With stricter blending requirements on the way in 2026 across Europe, Latin America and Asia, demand will likely shift further towards advanced and waste-derived biofuels, while abolishing double-counting incentives in Europe is also likely to send demand upwards. This bullish outlook is likely to attract new investments in production capacity, especially for compliant feedstocks. However, political uncertainties and slow legislative processes may delay this, underscoring the need for regulatory clarity.
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The market for waste-based biofuel feedstocks like used cooking oil has tightened, with prices reaching a three-year high in early September. Rising global biofuel demand driven by stringent blending mandates has run parallel to export bans, increasing sustainability requirements and the reemergence of trade tariffs and as such, a growing global feedstock gap will increasingly constrain biofuels supply and demand.
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Globally, SAF blend rates are forecast to reach around 15% by 2035, with Europe approaching 24%, The supply of SAF will be dominated by the HEFA pathway up to 2030, but by 2035, other pathways such as Alcohol-to-Jet and Power-to-Liquid will gain ground, especially as feedstock constraints become more pronounced. It's fair to say we expect SAF to become a mainstream part of the fuel mix by 2035, though fossil fuels still dominate, especially outside of Europe or North America.
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Direct electrification of road transport is more than twice as efficient as hydrogen power and four times more efficient than using e-fuels, making it the preferred pathway for decarbonization. However, some regions still rely on biofuels to meet near-term emissions targets or to decarbonize segments where electrification is not yet viable. Countries such as Brazil or India, with vast agricultural resources, offer potential inroads for biofuels penetration.
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Like other hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as aviation, the green fuel premium is up to three times that of bunker fuels, with fragmented policies and regional rules hampering investment. Making sustainable shipping a reality requires the steady advancement of technology, infrastructure and investment, all underpinned by robust and unified policy development. Making the next few years vital for the future of marine decarbonization.
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Colocation and conversion of refineries to biorefineries are increasingly common, especially in Asia and Europe, as companies seek to scale up biofuel and SAF production efficiently. The trend is expected to continue as mandates for SAF and renewable diesel increase globally, and as feedstock and logistics advantages become more critical for competitiveness. With climate, feedstock availability and financial challenges threatening to constrain the sector, collaborations across the value chain are a critical enabler of growth.
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The biofuels supply chain and investment community face a growing need to factor in potential impacts of a changing climate into long-term planning. Supply chain management now emphasizes risk disclosures and collaboration, with frameworks like the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures guiding companies in mitigating these risks while adapting to consumer demands for sustainability.
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