This intensive two-day training course gives participants a rigorous, practical grounding in petrochemical price definitions, forecasting methodologies, production cost analysis, and margin assessment - alongside the trading strategies and risk management frameworks needed to compete effectively in today's market.

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Why This Matters Now

A sustained wave of new capacity - led by China and the Middle East - has fundamentally altered supply-demand balances across key chains, compressing margins and accelerating the shift toward shorter-term, more flexible commercial arrangements. Many producers and traders are moving toward just-in-time sales and purchase agreements, placing a premium on real-time price intelligence and agile trading execution. Feedstock price volatility - shaped by energy market disruption, LNG trade realignment, and shifting NGL economics - makes cost curve analysis and margin forecasting more consequential than ever.

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Course Outline

Day 1 - Chemical Price Forecasting Techniques

• Introduction to Price Definitions and Forecasting Techniques
How chemical prices are defined, assessed, and reported; distinctions between short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting methodologies.
• Short-Term Forecasting Methods
Quantitative techniques including linear regression and linear programming; key price drivers and near-term signals. Case Study: Forecasting next quarter's prices for a selected chemical product.
• Medium- to Long-Term Forecasting Techniques
Production cost analysis - feedstock values, variable and fixed cost structures, and cost modelling frameworks. Case Studies: Cash cost of production analysis; estimating historical ROI and interpreting cost curves.
• Inherent Margin Analysis
Examining supply-demand balances, operating rates, and how they translate into margin signals. Case Study: Developing a demand forecast and assessing its market implications.
• Diagnostic Checks and Arbitrage
Regional price relationships, arbitrage mechanics, and identifying when trade flows are likely to shift.

Day 2 - Trading Strategies for the Petrochemical Industry

• Trading Lexicon and Commercial Foundations
Key terms, concepts, and market conventions in chemical trading - essential context for both new and experienced practitioners.
• Commercial Optimisation Along the Value Chain
Identifying where value can be created, captured, or protected at each stage of the chemical value chain.
• Pricing Concepts
Floor, ceiling, and market pricing; netback analysis for competitive positioning. Case Study: Evaluating the optimal buyer for a spot cargo.
• Marketing vs. Trading
Distinction between marketing and trading roles and how each creates value. Case Study: Managing quality gap risks in a live trading scenario.
• Evolution of Trading Centres
How oil and chemical trading hubs have developed globally and what new centres mean for price discovery and market access.
• Commercial Risk Management
Assessing market, counterparty, credit, and operational risks. Case Study: Choosing between fixed and formula pricing strategies in a volatile market.
• Hedging Strategies
Mitigating downside risk and positioning to benefit from market structure. Case Study: Leveraging market contango to optimise trading outcomes.

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What You Will Learn On This Course

• Apply short, medium, and long-term price forecasting techniques across a range of chemical products
• Build and interpret production cost models, cash cost analyses, and cost curve assessments
• Analyse supply-demand balances and operating rates to form well-grounded margin views
• Apply core chemical trading concepts - from netback analysis and spot cargo evaluation to fixed versus formula pricing decisions
• Identify, assess, and manage key commercial risks in chemical trading - market, counterparty, credit, and operational
• Deploy hedging strategies effectively, including leveraging market structure such as contango to commercial advantage

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Who Should Consider Attending This Course

This course is ideally suited for professionals across the chemical and petrochemical value chain who want to sharpen their analytical capabilities and strengthen their trading and risk management strategies. This could include:

• Trading, procurement, business development, and finance professionals
• Producers, distributors and end users