Chemicals: Price Forecasting and Trading Strategies
This comprehensive two-day course provides participants with a holistic understanding of chemical price definitions and forecasting techniques, as well as production cost and inherent margin analysis. Attendees will develop the confidence to forecast prices effectively in the short, medium, and long term. Additionally, the course will address the changing dynamics of the global chemical industry, where many players are adapting to just-in-time sales and purchase agreements.
Upcoming Courses
The chemical sector is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by shifting global demand, evolving market conditions, and technological advancements. As the industry faces increased volatility, mastering chemical pricing, forecasting, trading strategies, and risk management has become essential for success.
This comprehensive two-day course provides participants with a holistic understanding of petrochemical price definitions and forecasting techniques, as well as production cost and inherent margin analysis. Attendees will develop the confidence to forecast prices effectively in the short, medium, and long term. Additionally, the course will address the changing dynamics of the global petrochemical industry, where many players are adapting to just-in-time sales and purchase agreements.
By equipping participants with the necessary tools to navigate complex market dynamics, this course focuses on pricing mechanisms, strategic trading approaches, and risk management techniques. Professionals will be empowered to capitalize on new opportunities and remain competitive in an ever-evolving market landscape.
Agenda
Course Introduction
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Day 1: Chemical Price Forecasting Techniques
- Introduction to Price Definitions & Forecasting Techniques: Overview of short-term, medium-term, and long-term methodologies.
- Short-Term Forecasting Methods:
- Techniques such as linear regression and linear programming.
- Case Study #1: Forecasting next quarter’s prices for a selected chemical product.
- Medium to Long-Term Forecasting Techniques:
- Production cost analysis, including feedstock values and cost models.
- Case Study #2: Cash cost of production analysis.
- Case Study #3: Estimating historical ROI and understanding cost curves.
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- Inherent Margin Analysis
- Examining supply/demand balances and operating rates
- Case Study #4: Demand forecast and its market implications.
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- Diagnostic Checks: Understanding regional relationships and arbitrage opportunities.
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Day 2: Trading Strategies for the Petrochemical Industry
- Overview of trading Lexicons: Key terms and concepts in chemical trading.
- Commercial Optimization Along the Value Chain: Identifying optimization opportunities.
- Pricing Concepts:
- Understanding floor, ceiling, and market pricing.
- Conducting netback analysis
- Case Study #1: Evaluating the best buyer for a spot cargo.
- Marketing vs Trading: Differentiating roles and strategies in the chemical market.
- Case Study #2: Managing quality gap risks in trading.
- Evolution of Trading Centers: Insights into the development of oil and chemical trading hubs.
- Commercial Risk Elements:
- Assessing market, counterparty, credit, and operational risks./li>
- Case Study #3: Deciding between fixed and formula pricing strategies.
- Hedging Strategies in Trading: Techniques to mitigate risks and leverage market conditions.
- Case Study #4: Leveraging market contango to optimize trading outcomes.
Pricing:
Delegate
$3,050
$3,300
Standard Rate*
$3,550
* Rates are in USD and are not inclusive of local taxes or VAT. Training course terms and conditions apply.
* Super Early Bird Rates are available 12 weeks out; Early Bird Rates are 6 weeks out; Online Rates available with specific locations
* Rates are in USD and are not inclusive of local taxes or VAT. Training course terms and conditions apply.